* Wall Street remains under pressure as markets perceive heightened trade war risk ahead. 

* Gold stokes demand amid high market uncertainty and reaches an all-time high. 

* Eyes on today’s UK GDP reading to gauge the Pound Sterling’s strength. 

Market Summary

Wall Street witnessed a massive selloff in the last session as risk-off sentiment deepened following President Trump’s latest tariff threats. The president-elect announced plans to impose a 200% tariff on eurozone alcoholic beverages while reaffirming his stance on reciprocal tariffs across global trade partners. Markets interpreted this as a potential escalation into a full-scale trade war, raising concerns over U.S. economic contraction.

Amid the equity downturn, the U.S. dollar edged higher as investors sought refuge in safer assets. However, the biggest winner was gold, which surged nearly 2% in its strongest single-day gain of 2025, coming within striking distance of the $3,000 mark. The move signals that investors are flocking to safe-haven assets amid heightened uncertainty.

In the forex market, all eyes are on the UK GDP data release today, with market expectations pointing to a weaker reading. Should the data disappoint, it could place further downside pressure on the Pound Sterling against its major peers.

Current rate hike bets on 19th March Fed interest rate decision: 

Source: CME Fedwatch Tool

0 bps (95%) VS -25 bps (5%) 

Market Movements

DOLLAR_INDX, H4

Dollar dropped following the US inflationary pressures continued to ease. The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in February, rising 3.2% year-over-year, a notable slowdown from January’s 3.7% increase. Falling energy prices (-1.2%) contributed to the weak inflation print. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the first slowdown in five months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance. As a result, US Treasury yields declined, while the dollar extended its losses, further dampening market sentiment.

The Dollar Index is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bearish momentum, while RSI is at 32, suggesting the index might enter oversold territory. 

Resistance level: 105.45, 106.50

Support level: 103.40, 101.70

XAU/USD, H4

Global risk sentiment remains fragile as US inflation slows and trade tensions escalate, fueling a flight to safe-haven assets. Gold surged to a record high after President Donald Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports, retaliating against the EU’s proposed 50% tax on US whiskey. Trump criticized the EU’s actions as “hostile and abusive”, demanding an immediate tariff rollback..

Gold prices are trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. However, MACD has illustrated diminishing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 70, suggesting the commodity might enter overbought territory. 

Resistance level:  2990.00, 3035.00

Support level: 2935.00, 2885.00

EUR/USD，H1

The euro weakened as investors assessed Germany’s proposed €500 billion stimulus package for defense and infrastructure. While the plan could support short-term growth, uncertainty lingers until details are finalized. Trump’s tariff threats against the EU also heightened fears of a broader US-EU trade conflict, adding to euro volatility.

EUR/USD is trading lower while currently testing the support level. However, due to lack of market catalysts from MACD and RSI near the midline, we could be expecting the pair to consolidate in a zone between the resistance level of 1.0880 and support level of 1.0825. 

Resistance level: 1.0880, 1.0925

Support level: 1.0825, 1.0775

USD/JPY, H4

The USD/JPY pair has formed a higher-low pattern after rebounding from its 2025 low, suggesting a potential trend reversal for the pair. Market sentiment has shifted amid rising global economic uncertainty, particularly following President Trump’s aggressive trade policies, which have heightened concerns over a potential trade war. Notably, the market’s previous hawkish expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have eased, as investors now anticipate the central bank to maintain its current interest rate levels rather than pursue further tightening. This shift has weighed on the Japanese yen’s strength, potentially allowing the USD/JPY pair to push higher in the near term.

The pair has formed a higher-low price pattern. Should the pair trade beyond its previous high at 149.20, it should be seen as a bullish signal. The RSI is gaining to above the 50 level while the MACD is poised to break above from the zero line, suggesting that bullish momentum may be forming. 

Resistance level: 149.48, 151.35

Support level: 146.95, 143.80

GBP/USD, H4

The GBP/USD pair edged lower in the last session as the U.S. dollar regained strength, driven by rising risk-off sentiment following President Trump’s latest tariff threats. The announcement of a 200% tariff on eurozone alcoholic beverages has fueled concerns over a potential trade war, prompting investors to seek safety in the greenback. The Pound Sterling also faces headwinds as traders brace for today’s UK GDP release, which is expected to show a weaker reading than the previous quarter. A disappointing print could further weigh on the pair, reinforcing its downside bias in the near term.

The pair show an easing in bullish momentum, with the pair edging slightly lower from its highest level in 2025. The RSI and MACD are declining, in line with an easing bullish momentum with the pair. 

Resistance level:1.3050, 1.3155

Support level: 1.2865, 1.2785

Nasdaq, H4: 

The U.S. equity market faced renewed headwinds, with the Nasdaq plunging to its recent low, erasing previous gains. Market sentiment turned risk-off after President Trump’s latest tariff threats against the eurozone, which dampened investor confidence and triggered a massive sell-off across Wall Street. Concerns over escalating trade tensions have fueled uncertainty, prompting investors to scale back risk exposure. With the market bracing for potential retaliatory measures from global trade partners, volatility is expected to persist in the near term.

Nasdaq closed nearly 2% lower in the last session and wiped out all its previous gains, suggesting a bearish bias for the pair. The RSI is flirting with an oversold zone, while the MACD continues to edge lower, suggesting that the pair remains trading with strong bearish momentum. 

Resistance level: 19395.00, 20310.00

Support level: 18730.00, 17990.00

BTC, H4

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in lackluster trading, mirroring the broader risk-off sentiment in financial markets. With Wall Street under pressure from escalating trade tensions, investors are scaling back exposure to risky assets, weighing on crypto prices. Despite the downside pressure, BTC has formed a higher-low price pattern, suggesting that bearish momentum may be easing. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could stabilize in the near term, though a clear catalyst is needed to drive a decisive move.

BTC remains trading within its downtrend channel but has recently formed a lower-high price pattern. A break above the resistance level at $85000 may be seen as a bullish signal for BTC. The RSI remains below the 50 level, while the MACD shows signs of breaking above the zero line, suggesting that the bearish momentum is vanishing. 

Resistance level: 85000.00, 92800.00

Support level: 78700.00, 72400.00

Crude Oil, H4

Oil prices edged higher in Asian trading on Friday after the U.S. imposed tighter sanctions on Iranian oil and shipping, though oversupply concerns limited gains. The Trump administration ramped up its pressure campaign by sanctioning Iran’s oil minister and cracking down on its "shadow fleet," which helps bypass existing restrictions. However, traders remained cautious as U.S.-led ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine could stabilize energy flows, potentially increasing oil exports from the region. Meanwhile, the IEA warned that global supply could exceed demand by 2025, adding to long-term oversupply worries.

Crude oil prices are trading higher following the prior rebound from the support level. MACD has illustrated increasing bullish momentum, while RSI is at 52, suggesting the commodity might extend its gains since the RSI stays above the midline. 

Resistance level: 67.80, 69.05

Support level: 66.35, 65.30